The real consequences of Harry Potter numbers – Growth metrics – Economic Times

Subramanian makes two important points to justify his argument. One, he uses 17 key factors, including two-wheeler, tractor and truck sales, electricity consumption, manufacturing numbers, rail freight and so on, as proxies to measure overall growth.

He finds that before 2011, most of these, especially manufacturing production and exports, moved in tandem with overall growth. Thereafter, for no perceptible reason, manufacturing growth raced ahead, dragging GDP growth upward. Manufacturing is the main culprit, but other sectors too followed the same pattern.

Two, he shows that India’s growth, measured against an average of 71 other growing nations was in line till 2011. Thereafter, compared to all these nations, India shot ahead. This, statistically, is about as likely as locating a needle on the surface of Mars – without a telescope.

The real consequences of Harry Potter numbers – Growth metrics – Economic Times

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